While the patriotic part of the electorate is sighing bitterly about Volodymyr Zelensky’s chances to get to the runoff and even win the presidential race, a scenario of a complete change of power in the country begins to gradually outline.
For the presidential poll is only a prelude to the parliamentary elections that will take place this autumn. It would be naive to think that the great influence of Petro Poroshenko on all spheres of life in Ukraine is connected only with his presidency. No, he also has the largest faction in the parliament, he managed to form a coalition and, therefore, a loyal or even obedient government as well as appointed “his” people to the key posts.
And now let’s simulate a situation: Volodymyr Zelensky does win the election and becomes the president of Ukraine. Even if he really has at least a minimal desire to do something for his country, he will not even be able to make a step since he does not have a majority in the parliament. And any initiative of the president turns into an empty chatter without it.
Then it gets worse: a weak, immature and inexperienced president is rapidly losing people’s support. I do not need to remind you that Ukrainians have a tradition of starting to hate a person they voted for the next day after he has been sworn in as a president. Disappointment is inevitable, along with the reluctance of other political players to support such a president.
So it is highly likely that the election of Zelensky as a president will lead to the marginalization of the institution of the presidency in Ukraine. It will launch constitutional changes aiming to limit the influence and functions of the guarantor of the Constitution to purely representative ones. President Zelensky will not control the entire state but only his administration. He will turn into a British queen lacking exquisite style and good manners. He will only wave from Bankova Street to the tourists at the House with Chimaeras and solemnly open new “League of Laugh” seasons.
While the real power will pass to the prime minister. The ideas of turning our state into a parliamentary republic have existed in the Ukrainian political elite circles for many years already. The election of Zelensky as a president will only become a trigger for such amendments to the Constitution. It is quite possible to assume that under such circumstances an updated Constitution will allow the Verkhovna Rada to elect the next president by the parliament and not in the course of national elections.
Thus, one of Tymoshenko’s promises she gave last year – the introduction of the post of chancellor in Ukraine – will come true. Naturally, Mrs. Tymoshenko will obtain the position of the chancellor with unlimited power. After all, she does not care about the title of the post, she is interested in absolute power – no matter what it is called: president, prime minister or chancellor.
A high rating and a loss in the presidential elections will allow Tymoshenko to mobilize her voters and bring a large faction of the “Batkivshchyna” party to the Verkhovna Rada next autumn. Let’s add a faction of “Sluha Narodu” party (Eng. “Servant of the People”), all kinds of radicals and majoritarians as well as potential allies from the opposition (let me remind you that Yuriy Boyko stated that he believes the coalition with Tymoshenko was possible). And that is how we get a majority, which will change the Constitution and appoint Yulia Tymoshenko as a chancellor.
The fact that Zelensky and Tymoshenko are in the same political camp is evidenced by the recent interview of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky in which he praises both candidates. Their interests coincide: Kolomoisky finally gets even with Poroshenko, and Tymoshenko gains a real power in the country. According to this scenario, our political perspective in the near future will look like this: Zelensky is the president, Tymoshenko is the chancellor, and Kolomoisky is “in clover”.
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