Analysts of the investment bank Morgan Stanley expect that by the end of 2019 the hryvnia exchange rate will decrease against the dollar from today’s levels by UAH 4 – up to UAH 31 per dollar. This is reported by NV Business, referring to the Morgan Stanley report.
By the end of 2020, according to analysts’ forecasts, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will decrease even more – to 32.5 UAH / USD.
In 2020, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the NBU to lower its discount rate to 14 %, and by the end of this year, the cost of debt in Ukraine will fall to 16 %. Analysts of the American investment bank predict a decline in GDP growth to 2.7 % in 2019 and 2.6 % in 2020. The current account deficit is projected at 4 % of GDP in 2019 and 3.6 % in 2020.
“Political, macroeconomic uncertainty for investment, gas tariff increases, high inflation, constraining household consumption,” the economic situation in Ukraine is described in a thorough manner in the Morgan Stanley report. At the same time, as the chairman of the NBU Council noted earlier, in the next few months, we should not expect alarming events in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine.